Middle East / Persian Gulf · Iran + Proxies vs Israel + Coalition
As of mid-2026, the Iran–Israel Shadow War continues to escalate, with both nations engaging in covert and proxy operations across multiple fronts. The primary theaters of conflict are the Syrian and Lebanese borders, the Persian Gulf, and cyberspace.
Israel’s center of gravity lies in its advanced intelligence network, particularly the Mossad and Unit 8200, which conducts sophisticated cyber operations. Iran’s center of gravity is its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and various militant groups in Syria. Iran also leverages its ballistic missile capabilities, with sites like Parchin and Shahid Modarres serving as key launch points.
The most likely course of action (MLCOA) for Israel involves continued targeted assassinations of IRGC and Hezbollah leaders, as well as increased cyberattacks on Iranian infrastructure. Israel is also expected to bolster its military presence in the Golan Heights and Northern Command, with the deployment of Iron Dome systems and additional air defense batteries.
Iran’s MLCOA includes further entrenchment of its proxy forces in Syria and Lebanon, increased ballistic missile strikes on Israeli targets, and intensified cyber operations against Israeli infrastructure. The IRGC’s Quds Force is likely to play a pivotal role in coordinating these efforts.
A key indicator to watch is the frequency and scale of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in both nations. Recent attacks on Israeli energy facilities and Iranian oil refineries demonstrate the escalating nature of this front.
[Israel] COG: Strategic deterrence through military superiority. Critical Capabilities: Advanced air defense (Iron Dome, Arrow), cyber warfare, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). Critical Requirements: International support, technological edge, rapid response. Critical Vulnerabilities: Over-reliance on technology, limited ground forces, political tensions.
[Iran] COG: Regional influence and asymmetric warfare. Critical Capabilities: Proxy forces (Hezbollah, Houthis), missile program, cyber warfare. Critical Requirements: Foreign support (Russia, China), domestic stability, asymmetric tactics. Critical Vulnerabilities: Economic sanctions, internal dissent, air defense limitations.
**MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):** Escalating cyber and proxy attacks, with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran retaliating through Hezbollah and Iraqi militias. Both sides will likely avoid direct military confrontation, focusing on asymmetric tactics.
**MDCOA (Most Dangerous):** Direct kinetic strikes by either side, potentially drawing in regional powers and escalating into a broader conflict. Watch for increased Iranian missile launches and Israeli airstrikes in Syrian territory.
**Confidence Level:** Medium. Watch for developments in Iranian nuclear capabilities, Israeli political leadership, and U.S. intervention signals.
Will Iran conduct direct military strike on Israel in 2026?
Intelligence updated daily by AI analysis · Methodology · Subscribe